Inspired by Jose, Bryan Caplan, and others, this is a page where I track my ongoing and resolved bets publicly. Remember, bets are not endorsements!
Ongoing Bets
OpenAI will hit their 100X payout threshold to their (first round of) investors by 2035
For: Me |
Against: Robin Hanson |
Amount: 0 USD / 0 USD |
Resolution: January 1, 2035
There will be a draft in the US in the next 10 years
For: Eryney Marrogi |
Against: Me |
Amount: 50 USD / 50 USD |
Resolution: July 13, 2033
By July 2027, 10 people who explicitly identify as EAs will be billionaires who are not now billionaires
For: Dwarkesh Patel |
Against: Me |
Amount: 250 USD / 250 USD |
Resolution: July 1, 2027
Within 3 years, 1 major city will see at least 1,000 fully autonomous (no safety driver) rides/day of at least 3 miles each, with no collisions due to car error in one week of such activity
For: Me |
Against: Will Baird |
Amount: 35 USD / 15 USD |
Resolution: November 4, 2024
Resolved Bets
Sam Altman will be back or announced to be back as CEO at OpenAI or Mira Murati will have left by EOD 11/20/2023 (5 PM PT)
For: Me |
Against: Matt Ritter |
Amount: 10 USD / 10 USD |
Winner: Me
If there's a big announcement the week of March 8th, it'll be an open source model-related thing
For: Eryney |
Against: Me |
Amount: 10 USD / 10 USD |
Winner: N/A
China takes military action that results in loss of life of at least one Taiwanese or Chinese service member as the result of some armed conflict before 20 Jan 2025
For: [REDACTED] |
Against: Me |
Amount: 250 USD / 250 USD |
Winner: Me
The Ethereum merge will complete (for the mainnet) by January 1st, 2023
For: Me |
Against: Eryney Marrogi |
Amount: 0.05 ETH / 0.05 ETH |
Winner: Me
Russia will invade Ukraine before May 15th, 2022
For: Me |
Against: Eryney |
Amount: 0.5 LINK / 0.5 LINK |
Winner: Me
ETH price will be above $1k on 1/1/22
For: Eryney Marrogi |
Against: Me |
Amount: 1.43 LINK / 2.28 LINK |
Winner: Eryney Marrogi
At least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive)
For: AppliedDivinityStudies |
Against: Me |
Amount: 200 USD / 300 USD |
Winner: Me
By 2/3/2023, it will still be possible to play a free version of wordle roughly every day
For: Matt Ritter |
Against: Me |
Amount: 50 USD / 50 USD |
Winner: Matt Ritter
Less than 500,000 Americans golf at least once per year
For: Me |
Against: Jen Dalecki |
Amount: 10 USD / 10 USD |
Winner: Jen Dalecki
There will be street violence in a major city by end of 2020
For: Me |
Against: REDACTED |
Amount: 0 USD / 0 USD |
Winner: REDACTED