Bets

Table of Contents

Inspired by Jose, Bryan Caplan, and others, this is a page where I track my ongoing and resolved bets publicly. Remember, bets are not endorsements!

Ongoing Bets

OpenAI will hit their 100X payout threshold to their (first round of) investors by 2035

For: Me | Against: Robin Hanson | Amount: 0 USD / 0 USD | Resolution: January 1, 2035

There will be a draft in the US in the next 10 years

For: Eryney Marrogi | Against: Me | Amount: 50 USD / 50 USD | Resolution: July 13, 2033

By July 2027, 10 people who explicitly identify as EAs will be billionaires who are not now billionaires

For: Dwarkesh Patel | Against: Me | Amount: 250 USD / 250 USD | Resolution: July 1, 2027

Within 3 years, 1 major city will see at least 1,000 fully autonomous (no safety driver) rides/day of at least 3 miles each, with no collisions due to car error in one week of such activity

For: Me | Against: Will Baird | Amount: 35 USD / 15 USD | Resolution: November 4, 2024

Resolved Bets

Sam Altman will be back or announced to be back as CEO at OpenAI or Mira Murati will have left by EOD 11/20/2023 (5 PM PT)

For: Me | Against: Matt Ritter | Amount: 10 USD / 10 USD | Winner: Me

If there's a big announcement the week of March 8th, it'll be an open source model-related thing

For: Eryney | Against: Me | Amount: 10 USD / 10 USD | Winner: N/A

China takes military action that results in loss of life of at least one Taiwanese or Chinese service member as the result of some armed conflict before 20 Jan 2025

For: [REDACTED] | Against: Me | Amount: 250 USD / 250 USD | Winner: Me

The Ethereum merge will complete (for the mainnet) by January 1st, 2023

For: Me | Against: Eryney Marrogi | Amount: 0.05 ETH / 0.05 ETH | Winner: Me

Russia will invade Ukraine before May 15th, 2022

For: Me | Against: Eryney | Amount: 0.5 LINK / 0.5 LINK | Winner: Me

ETH price will be above $1k on 1/1/22

For: Eryney Marrogi | Against: Me | Amount: 1.43 LINK / 2.28 LINK | Winner: Eryney Marrogi

At least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive)

For: AppliedDivinityStudies | Against: Me | Amount: 200 USD / 300 USD | Winner: Me

By 2/3/2023, it will still be possible to play a free version of wordle roughly every day

For: Matt Ritter | Against: Me | Amount: 50 USD / 50 USD | Winner: Matt Ritter

Less than 500,000 Americans golf at least once per year

For: Me | Against: Jen Dalecki | Amount: 10 USD / 10 USD | Winner: Jen Dalecki

There will be street violence in a major city by end of 2020

For: Me | Against: REDACTED | Amount: 0 USD / 0 USD | Winner: REDACTED