Greatest Hits

A shortlist of my favorite posts, organized by topic.

AI & Technology #

AI Omens - Reflecting on early signs of AI’s rapid progress from 2022.
GPT-4 Predictions - My predictions about GPT-4 before its release.
Decentralization of Atoms is Underrated - Why physical decentralization matters for the future

Biologizing the Stack - Imagining a future where biology replaces silicon
Crazy Ideas for Future Synthetic Biology - Wild speculation about synthetic biology’s future
Editing, Parts I and II - Intro to gene editing, co-written with Eryney.
Riffing on Machines of Loving Grace - Exploring implications of “geniuses in a datacenter” for biology
Lessons from Humira - What blockbuster drug development teaches us about timelines
Slow feedback loops rule every (living) thing around me - Why biology needs faster feedback loops

Ideas Not Mattering is a Psyop - Why good ideas are both essential and hard to find
Learning to Love Thinking - On becoming a more playful thinker
Beware Silver Bullets - Reckoning with my tendency towards eternalism
The Neglected Mystery of the Energetic Aliens Among Us - On cognitive stamina and high achievers. Almost certainly my most popular post.

Decaf vs. Regular Coffee Blinded Experiment - A two-week self-RCT on coffee’s effects
Maniac Week Review - Reflections on an intense productivity experiment

2021 Predictions - Reaping.
Scoring My 2021 Predictions - Sowing.
GPT-4 Predictions - Specific predictions about AI capabilities
Better Project Planning With Prediction Markets - Using prediction markets for institutional decision-making, still underrated.
2050 Predictions - Long-term predictions about technology and society. Sadly, I whiffed on AI with this one, although that was partly a matter of assumptions rather than mistaken beliefs.

Book Review - The Art of Learning - Lessons from Josh Waitzkin’s journey to mastery
Book Review - A World Without Email - Cal Newport on workplace communication
Book Review - Elmer Gates and the Art of Mind-Using - Trying to generate awareness of a poorly written but very interesting old book.
Movie Review - Top Gun: Maverick - Why this sequel exceeded all expectations