Stephen Malina

This is my blog. There are many others like it but this one is mine.

Bets

Contents

Inspired by Jose, Bryan Caplan, and others, this is a page where I track my ongoing and resolved bets publicly. Remember, bets are not endorsements!

Format

Bet: What is/was the bet?

For: Who is/was for in favor of the claim?
Against: Who is/was against the claim?
Amount: How much money (and in what currency) do/did the for/against person get paid by the other person if they won?
Implied probabilities: What are the bettor’s (implied) probabilities in the direction of their “preferred” outcomes?
Resolution date: On or before what day will the bet be resolved?
Winner: Who won the bet?

Bets

Bet: China takes military action that results in loss of life of at least one Taiwanese or Chinese service member as the result of some armed conflict before 20 Jan 2025

For: [REDACTED]
Against: Me
Amount: $50 / $50
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2025-01-20 Winner: TBD

Bet: By July 2027, 10 people who explicitly identify as EAs will be billionaires who are not now billionaires.

For: Dwarkesh Patel
Against: Me
Amount: $250 / $250 Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$leq .5$
Resolution date: 2027-07-01
Winner: TBD

Bet: By 2/3/2023, it will still be possible to play a free version of wordle roughly every day, even if there are 350 or more days where wordle is active. There may be premium features or variants of wordle, but a basic version similar to the current one will still be free.

For: Matt Ritter
Against: Me
Amount: $50 / $50
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2023-02-03 Winner: TBD

Bet: [REDACTED]

For: [REDACTED]
Against: Me
Amount: [REDACTED]
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2022-07-01
Winner: [REDACTED]

Bet: Russia will invade Ukraine before May 15th, 2022.

For: Me
Against: Eryney
Amount: .5 LINK/.5 LINK
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2022-05-15
Winner: Me

Bet: ETH price will be above $1k on 1/1/22.

For: Eryney Marrogi
Against: Me
Amount: 1.43 LINK/2.28 LINK
Implied probabilities: $\geq .62$/$ \leq .38 $
Resolution date: 2021-01-01
Winner: Eryney Marrogi

Bet: At least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive).

For: AppliedDivinityStudies
Against: Me
Amount: \$200/\$300
Implied probabilities: $ \geq .60 $/ $ \leq .40 $
Resolution date: 2023-02-28
Winner: TBD

Bet: Within 3 years, 1 major city will see at least 1,000 fully autonomous (no safety driver) rides/day of at least 3 miles each, with no collisions due to car error in one week of such activity.

For: Me
Against: Will Baird
Amount: \$35/\$15
Implied probabilities: $ \geq .30 $/ $ \leq .70 $
Resolution date: 2024-11-04
Winner: TBD

Bet: Less than 500,000 Americans golf at least once per year.

For: Me
Against: Jen Dalecki
Amount: \$10/\$10
Implied probabilities: $ \geq .50 $/ $ \leq .50 $
Winner: Jen Dalecki

Bet: There will be street violence in a major city by end of 2020.

For: Me
Against: Will Baird
Amount: Forgotten
Odds: Forgotten
Winner: Will Baird

Bet: OpenAI will hit their 100X payout threshold to their (first round of) investors by 2035.

For: Me
Against: Robin Hanson
Amount: \$1000 * (S&P growth rate between 2021-05-19 and 2035-01-01)/\$20 (NB: Technically I paid Robin already so the odds work out to 50/1 rather than 51/1 as it might seem.)
Implied probabilities: $ \geq .98 $/ $ \glq .02 $
Resolution date: 2035-01-01
Winner: TBD
Proof: Tweet (a)

Implied Probability Calculation

For the limited number of people who are interested but don’t find it obvious. The implied probabilites are computed as follows. Let $ w $ denote the amount I make if I’m right and $ l $ the amount I pay if I’m wrong. The implied probability (at the breakeven point) is $ p = \frac{l}{w+l}. $ This is derived via the following expected value algebra $$ \begin{aligned} &wp - (1-p)l = 0 \\
&(w+l)p = l \\
&p = \frac{l}{w+l}. \end{aligned} $$