# Stephen Malina

## This is my blog. There are many others like it but this one is mine.

# Bets

## Contents

Inspired by Jose, Bryan Caplan, and others, this is a page where I track my ongoing and resolved bets publicly. Remember, bets are not endorsements!

### Format

#### Bet: What is/was the bet?

For: Who is/was for in favor of the claim?

Against: Who is/was against the claim?

Amount: How much money (and in what currency) do/did the for/against person get paid by the other person if they won?

Implied probabilities: What are the bettor’s (implied) probabilities in the direction of their “preferred” outcomes?

Resolution date: On or before what day will the bet be resolved?

Winner: Who won the bet?

### Bets

#### Bet: The Ethereum merge will complete (for the mainnet) by January 1st, 2023

For: Me

Against: Eryney Marrogi
Amount: 0.05 ETH / 0.05 ETH

Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2023-01-01

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: China takes military action that results in loss of life of at least one Taiwanese or Chinese service member as the result of some armed conflict before 20 Jan 2025

For: [REDACTED]

Against: Me

Amount: $50 / $50

Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2025-01-20

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: By July 2027, 10 people who explicitly identify as EAs will be billionaires who are not now billionaires.

For: Dwarkesh Patel

Against: Me

Amount: $250 / $250
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2027-07-01

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: By 2/3/2023, it will still be possible to play a free version of wordle roughly every day, even if there are 350 or more days where wordle is active. There may be premium features or variants of wordle, but a basic version similar to the current one will still be free.

For: Matt Ritter

Against: Me

Amount: $50 / $50

Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2023-02-03
Winner: TBD

#### Bet: [REDACTED]

For: [REDACTED]

Against: Me

Amount: [REDACTED]

Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2022-07-01

Winner: [REDACTED]

#### Bet: Russia will invade Ukraine before May 15th, 2022.

For: Me

Against: Eryney

Amount: .5 LINK/.5 LINK

Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2022-05-15

Winner: Me

#### Bet: ETH price will be above $1k on 1/1/22.

For: Eryney Marrogi

Against: Me

Amount: 1.43 LINK/2.28 LINK

Implied probabilities: $\geq .62$/$ \leq .38 $

Resolution date: 2021-01-01

Winner: Eryney Marrogi

#### Bet: At least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive).

For: AppliedDivinityStudies

Against: Me

Amount: \$200/\$300

Implied probabilities: $ \geq .60 $/ $ \leq .40 $

Resolution date: 2023-02-28

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: Within 3 years, 1 major city will see at least 1,000 fully autonomous (no safety driver) rides/day of at least 3 miles each, with no collisions due to car error in one week of such activity.

For: Me

Against: Will Baird

Amount: \$35/\$15

Implied probabilities: $ \geq .30 $/ $ \leq .70 $

Resolution date: 2024-11-04

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: Less than 500,000 Americans golf at least once per year.

For: Me

Against: Jen Dalecki

Amount: \$10/\$10

Implied probabilities: $ \geq .50 $/ $ \leq .50 $

Winner: Jen Dalecki

#### Bet: There will be street violence in a major city by end of 2020.

For: Me

Against: Will Baird

Amount: Forgotten

Odds: Forgotten

Winner: Will Baird

#### Bet: OpenAI will hit their 100X payout threshold to their (first round of) investors by 2035.

For: Me

Against: Robin Hanson

Amount: \$1000 * (S&P growth rate between 2021-05-19 and 2035-01-01)/\$20 (*NB: Technically I paid Robin already so the odds work out to 50/1 rather than 51/1 as it might seem.*)

Implied probabilities: $ \geq .98 $/ $ \glq .02 $

Resolution date: 2035-01-01

Winner: TBD

Proof: Tweet (a)

### Implied Probability Calculation

For the limited number of people who are interested but don’t find it obvious. The implied probabilites are computed as follows. Let $ w $ denote the amount I make if I’m right and $ l $ the amount I pay if I’m wrong. The implied probability (at the breakeven point) is $ p = \frac{l}{w+l}. $
This is derived via the following expected value algebra
$$
\begin{aligned}
&wp - (1-p)l = 0 \\

&(w+l)p = l \\

&p = \frac{l}{w+l}.
\end{aligned}
$$