Bets

Inspired by Jose, Bryan Caplan, and others, this is a page where I track my ongoing and resolved bets publicly. Remember, bets are not endorsements!

Format #

Bet: What is/was the bet? #

For: Who is/was for in favor of the claim?
Against: Who is/was against the claim?
Amount: How much money (and in what currency) do/did the for/against person get paid by the other person if they won?
Implied probabilities: What are the bettor’s (implied) probabilities in the direction of their “preferred” outcomes?
Resolution date: On or before what day will the bet be resolved?
Winner: Who won the bet?

Bets #

Bet: There will be a draft in the US in the next 10 years #

For: Eryney Marrogi
Against: Me
Amount: $50 / $50
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2033-07-13
Winner: TBD

Bet: [REDACTED] #

For: Me Against: [REDACTED] Amount: $50 / $50
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2023-06-01
Winner: Me

Bet: The Ethereum merge will complete (for the mainnet) by January 1st, 2023 #

For: Me
Against: Eryney Marrogi Amount: 0.05 ETH / 0.05 ETH
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2023-01-01
Winner: TBD

Bet: China takes military action that results in loss of life of at least one Taiwanese or Chinese service member as the result of some armed conflict before 20 Jan 2025 #

For: [REDACTED]
Against: Me
Amount: $50 / $50
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2025-01-20
Winner: TBD

Bet: By July 2027, 10 people who explicitly identify as EAs will be billionaires who are not now billionaires. #

For: Dwarkesh Patel
Against: Me
Amount: $250 / $250 Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2027-07-01
Winner: TBD

Bet: By 2/3/2023, it will still be possible to play a free version of wordle roughly every day, even if there are 350 or more days where wordle is active. There may be premium features or variants of wordle, but a basic version similar to the current one will still be free. #

For: Matt Ritter
Against: Me
Amount: $50 / $50
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2023-02-03 Winner: Matt Ritter

Bet: [REDACTED] #

For: [REDACTED]
Against: Me
Amount: [REDACTED]
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2022-07-01
Winner: [REDACTED]

Bet: Russia will invade Ukraine before May 15th, 2022. #

For: Me
Against: Eryney
Amount: .5 LINK/.5 LINK
Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$
Resolution date: 2022-05-15
Winner: Me

Bet: ETH price will be above $1k on 1/1/22. #

For: Eryney Marrogi
Against: Me
Amount: 1.43 LINK/2.28 LINK
Implied probabilities: $\geq .62$/$ \leq .38 $
Resolution date: 2021-01-01
Winner: Eryney Marrogi

Bet: At least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive). #

For: AppliedDivinityStudies
Against: Me
Amount: $200/$300
Implied probabilities: $ \geq .60 $/ $ \leq .40 $
Resolution date: 2023-02-28
Winner: Me

Bet: Within 3 years, 1 major city will see at least 1,000 fully autonomous (no safety driver) rides/day of at least 3 miles each, with no collisions due to car error in one week of such activity. #

For: Me
Against: Will Baird
Amount: $35/$15
Implied probabilities: $ \geq .30 $/ $ \leq .70 $
Resolution date: 2024-11-04
Winner: TBD

Bet: Less than 500,000 Americans golf at least once per year. #

For: Me
Against: Jen Dalecki
Amount: $10/$10
Implied probabilities: $ \geq .50 $/ $ \leq .50 $
Winner: Jen Dalecki

Bet: There will be street violence in a major city by end of 2020. #

For: Me
Against: Will Baird
Amount: Forgotten
Odds: Forgotten
Winner: Will Baird

Bet: OpenAI will hit their 100X payout threshold to their (first round of) investors by 2035. #

For: Me
Against: Robin Hanson
Amount: $1000 * (S&P growth rate between 2021-05-19 and 2035-01-01)/$20 (NB: Technically I paid Robin already so the odds work out to 50/1 rather than 51/1 as it might seem.)
Implied probabilities: $ \geq .98 $/ $ \leq .02 $
Resolution date: 2035-01-01
Winner: TBD
Proof: Tweet (a)

Implied Probability Calculation #

For the limited number of people who are interested but don’t find it obvious. The implied probabilites are computed as follows. Let $ w $ denote the amount I make if I’m right and $ l $ the amount I pay if I’m wrong. The implied probability (at the breakeven point) is $ p = \frac{l}{w+l}. $ This is derived via the following expected value algebra $$ \begin{aligned} &wp - (1-p)l = 0 \\ &(w+l)p = l \\ &p = \frac{l}{w+l}. \end{aligned} $$