# Stephen Malina

## This is my blog. There are many others like it but this one is mine.

# Bets

## Contents

Inspired by Jose, Bryan Caplan, and others, this is a page where I track my ongoing and resolved bets publicly. Remember, bets are not endorsements!

### Format

#### Bet: What is/was the bet?

For: Who is/was for in favor of the claim?

Against: Who is/was against the claim?

Amount: How much money (and in what currency) do/did the for/against person get paid by the other person if they won?

Implied probabilities: What are the bettor’s (implied) probabilities in the direction of their “preferred” outcomes?

Resolution date: On or before what day will the bet be resolved?

Winner: Who won the bet?

### Bets

#### Bet: By 2/3/2023, it will still be possible to play a free version of wordle roughly every day, even if there are 350 or more days where wordle is active. There may be premium features or variants of wordle, but a basic version similar to the current one will still be free.

For: Matt Ritter

Against: Me

Amount: $50 / $50

Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2022-02-15

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: [REDACTED]

For: [REDACTED]

Against: Me

Amount: [REDACTED]

Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2022-07-01

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: Russia will invade Ukraine before May 15th, 2022.

For: Me

Against: Eryney

Amount: .5 LINK/.5 LINK

Implied probabilities: $\geq .5$/$\leq .5$

Resolution date: 2022-05-15

Winner: Me

#### Bet: ETH price will be above $1k on 1/1/22.

For: Eryney Marrogi

Against: Me

Amount: 1.43 LINK/2.28 LINK

Implied probabilities: $\geq .62$/$ \geq .38 $

Resolution date: 2021-01-01

Winner: Eryney Marrogi

#### Bet: At least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive).

For: AppliedDivinityStudies

Against: Me

Amount: \$200/\$300

Implied probabilities: $ \geq .60 $/ $ \geq .40 $

Resolution date: 2023-02-28

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: Within 3 years, 1 major city will see at least 1,000 fully autonomous (no safety driver) rides/day of at least 3 miles each, with no collisions due to car error in one week of such activity.

For: Me

Against: Will Baird

Amount: \$35/\$15

Implied probabilities: $ \geq .30 $/ $ \geq .70 $

Resolution date: 2024-11-04

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: Less than 500,000 Americans golf at least once per year.

For: Me

Against: Jen Dalecki

Amount: \$10/\$10

Implied probabilities: $ \geq .50 $/ $ \geq .50 $

Winner: Jen Dalecki

#### Bet: There will be street violence in a major city by end of 2020.

For: Me

Against: Will Baird

Amount: Forgotten

Odds: Forgotten

Winner: Will Baird

#### Bet: OpenAI will hit their 100X payout threshold to their (first round of) investors by 2035.

For: Me

Against: Robin Hanson

Amount: \$1000 * (S&P growth rate between 2021-05-19 and 2035-01-01)/\$20 (*NB: Technically I paid Robin already so the odds work out to 50/1 rather than 51/1 as it might seem.*)

Implied probabilities: $ \geq .98 $/ $ \geq .02 $

Resolution date: 2035-01-01

Winner: TBD

Proof: Tweet (a)

### Implied Probability Calculation

For the limited number of people who are interested but don’t find it obvious. The implied probabilites are computed as follows. Let $ w $ denote the amount I make if I’m right and $ l $ the amount I pay if I’m wrong. The implied probability (at the breakeven point) is $ p = \frac{l}{w+l}. $
This is derived via the following expected value algebra
$$
\begin{aligned}
&wp - (1-p)l = 0 \\

&(w+l)p = l \\

&p = \frac{l}{w+l}.
\end{aligned}
$$