# Bets

## Table of Contents

Inspired by Jose, Bryan Caplan, and others, this is a page where I track my ongoing and resolved bets publicly. Remember, bets are not endorsements!

### Format #

#### Bet: What is/was the bet? #

For: Who is/was for in favor of the claim?

Against: Who is/was against the claim?

Amount: How much money (and in what currency) do/did the for/against person get paid by the other person if they won?

Implied probabilities: What are the bettor’s (implied) probabilities in the direction of their “preferred” outcomes?

Resolution date: On or before what day will the bet be resolved?

Winner: Who won the bet?

### Bets #

#### Bet: There will be a draft in the US in the next 10 years #

For: Eryney Marrogi

Against: Me

Amount: $50 / $50

Implied probabilities: `$\geq .5$`

/`$\leq .5$`

Resolution date: 2033-07-13

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: [REDACTED] #

For: Me
Against: [REDACTED]
Amount: $50 / $50

Implied probabilities: `$\geq .5$`

/`$\leq .5$`

Resolution date: 2023-06-01

Winner: Me

#### Bet: The Ethereum merge will complete (for the mainnet) by January 1st, 2023 #

For: Me

Against: Eryney Marrogi
Amount: 0.05 ETH / 0.05 ETH

Implied probabilities: `$\geq .5$`

/`$\leq .5$`

Resolution date: 2023-01-01

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: China takes military action that results in loss of life of at least one Taiwanese or Chinese service member as the result of some armed conflict before 20 Jan 2025 #

For: [REDACTED]

Against: Me

Amount: $50 / $50

Implied probabilities: `$\geq .5$`

/`$\leq .5$`

Resolution date: 2025-01-20

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: By July 2027, 10 people who explicitly identify as EAs will be billionaires who are not now billionaires. #

For: Dwarkesh Patel

Against: Me

Amount: $250 / $250
Implied probabilities: `$\geq .5$`

/`$\leq .5$`

Resolution date: 2027-07-01

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: By 2/3/2023, it will still be possible to play a free version of wordle roughly every day, even if there are 350 or more days where wordle is active. There may be premium features or variants of wordle, but a basic version similar to the current one will still be free. #

For: Matt Ritter

Against: Me

Amount: $50 / $50

Implied probabilities: `$\geq .5$`

/`$\leq .5$`

Resolution date: 2023-02-03
Winner: Matt Ritter

#### Bet: [REDACTED] #

For: [REDACTED]

Against: Me

Amount: [REDACTED]

Implied probabilities: `$\geq .5$`

/`$\leq .5$`

Resolution date: 2022-07-01

Winner: [REDACTED]

#### Bet: Russia will invade Ukraine before May 15th, 2022. #

For: Me

Against: Eryney

Amount: .5 LINK/.5 LINK

Implied probabilities: `$\geq .5$`

/`$\leq .5$`

Resolution date: 2022-05-15

Winner: Me

#### Bet: ETH price will be above $1k on 1/1/22. #

For: Eryney Marrogi

Against: Me

Amount: 1.43 LINK/2.28 LINK

Implied probabilities: `$\geq .62$`

/`$ \leq .38 $`

Resolution date: 2021-01-01

Winner: Eryney Marrogi

#### Bet: At least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive). #

For: AppliedDivinityStudies

Against: Me

Amount: $200/$300

Implied probabilities: `$ \geq .60 $`

/ `$ \leq .40 $`

Resolution date: 2023-02-28

Winner: Me

#### Bet: Within 3 years, 1 major city will see at least 1,000 fully autonomous (no safety driver) rides/day of at least 3 miles each, with no collisions due to car error in one week of such activity. #

For: Me

Against: Will Baird

Amount: $35/$15

Implied probabilities: `$ \geq .30 $`

/ `$ \leq .70 $`

Resolution date: 2024-11-04

Winner: TBD

#### Bet: Less than 500,000 Americans golf at least once per year. #

For: Me

Against: Jen Dalecki

Amount: $10/$10

Implied probabilities: `$ \geq .50 $`

/ `$ \leq .50 $`

Winner: Jen Dalecki

#### Bet: There will be street violence in a major city by end of 2020. #

For: Me

Against: Will Baird

Amount: Forgotten

Odds: Forgotten

Winner: Will Baird

#### Bet: OpenAI will hit their 100X payout threshold to their (first round of) investors by 2035. #

For: Me

Against: Robin Hanson

Amount: $1000 * (S&P growth rate between 2021-05-19 and 2035-01-01)/$20 (*NB: Technically I paid Robin already so the odds work out to 50/1 rather than 51/1 as it might seem.*)

Implied probabilities: `$ \geq .98 $`

/ `$ \leq .02 $`

Resolution date: 2035-01-01

Winner: TBD

Proof: Tweet (a)

### Implied Probability Calculation #

For the limited number of people who are interested but don’t find it obvious. The implied probabilites are computed as follows. Let $ w $ denote the amount I make if I’m right and $ l $ the amount I pay if I’m wrong. The implied probability (at the breakeven point) is `$ p = \frac{l}{w+l}. $`

This is derived via the following expected value algebra
$$
\begin{aligned}
&wp - (1-p)l = 0 \\
&(w+l)p = l \\
&p = \frac{l}{w+l}.
\end{aligned}
$$